Stock Market Analysis - August 2024

Stock Market Analysis - iFAST

US Fed Chair Powell gave a clear signal of a rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting, making a September rate cut almost certain. In his speech, Powell focused on the labor market, noting that the risks to U.S. employment have increased. He said the Fed does not want or welcome further cooling of the job market, and it's time to adjust policy.

While continuing to work towards price stability, the Fed will do everything it can to support a strong labor market.

On inflation, Powell said that the risk of rising inflation has decreased and expressed stronger confidence that inflation will fall back to the 2% target. His comments on Friday nearly marked the end of the Fed’s historic fight against inflation. This indicates that the Fed is ready to cut rates and that its monetary policy has shifted from just fighting inflation to balancing both inflation and employment stability.

Powell mentioned in his speech that the chances of the U.S. achieving a soft landing are increasing. Historically, a soft landing for the U.S. economy often comes with a series of "fortunate" positive supply shocks, which help boost risk appetite. This indirectly suggests that the stock market is unlikely to face a major decline easily.⬆

Back to the Malaysian stock market:

📊 Due to the positive comments from Powell on Friday, the Malaysian stock market is likely to rise today, ending a four-day period of fluctuations. Technically, if the market can break through the resistance around 1645 points today, the index will resume its upward trend. There is a high chance that the market will break through this resistance zone. For now, you can continue holding stocks and wait for the rise. Consider looking into investment opportunities in technology stocks.

🌏 Asian stock markets cautiously rose on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields fell before inflation data is released. The market hopes that this data will pave the way for rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe.

📊 In early trading on Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both dropped 0.1%. Excluding Japan, Asia-Pacific stock indexes rose 0.4%, up 1.1% last week, with the Korean index gaining 0.3%. The Japanese Nikkei index fell 0.7% due to the stronger yen putting pressure on export stocks.

US: The rate cut in the U.S. is confirmed and has boosted market sentiment, but Asian stock markets have shown mixed performance. In Malaysia, the increase has not been significant. Currently, leading the gains are Tenaga Nasional (TENAGA) and Maybank (MAYBANK).

MY:After rising early in the session, the market fell back, and overall performance was average. Technically, the index is still near support levels and has not broken through them, so there is still a chance for the index to rise further after a consolidation period. For now, it’s recommended to hold onto stocks and wait for a rise.

MY: Positive sentiment from the Fed's recent dovish comments was replaced by profit-taking, causing the Malaysian stock market to give up its early gains. The benchmark index was up 2.3 points to 1,638.04 points at the midday break, below the early high of 1,643.95 points.

MY:Investors remain cautious about small-cap stocks, with 481 stocks falling and 461 rising. The trading volume was 1.72 billion shares, with a total value of 1.18 billion ringgit.

MY: Most sectors performed well, except for healthcare, plantations, technology, and utilities. Malaysia's companies are in the final week of their second-quarter earnings reports, with many major firms set to announce their profits.

MY: Among the major banks, Malayan Banking (Maybank) rose 10 cents to RM10.54, Public Bank fell 1 cent to RM4.52, and CIMB dropped 6 cents to RM7.83. Tenaga Nasional increased by 28 cents to RM14, while Sunway went up 12 cents to RM4.14.

MY: Among active stocks, Elridge rose 4.5 cents to 45 cents, Cape EMS increased by 0.5 cents to 38.5 cents, and Genetec fell by 5 cents to RM1.14.

MY:Investors hope that the upcoming U.S. inflation data will pave the way for rate cuts. On Monday, major Asian stock markets were mixed. The Malaysian Composite Index opened high but gave back some of its gains during the day, closing with a slight increase. By the afternoon close, the index was up 3.22 points or 0.20%, at 1,638.9 points.

MY:The market overall was balanced, with 506 stocks rising, 578 falling, 434 unchanged, 991 not traded, and 19 suspended. The total trading volume was 2.826 billion shares, with a total value of 2.623 billion ringgit.

📊 In the composite index, some stocks rose while others fell. Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK, 2445, Main Board Plantation) increased by 24 cents to RM21.46, Tenaga Nasional (TENAGA, 5347, Main Board Utilities) rose by 20 cents to RM13.92, Petronas Dagangan (PETDAG, 5681, Main Board Consumer) went up by 14 cents to RM20.42, and Sunway (SUNWAY, 5211, Main Board Industrial) gained 10 cents to RM4.12.

📊 Stocks that fell include Nestlé (NESTLE, 4707, Main Board Consumer) down by RM1.00 to RM101.00, Petronas Gas (PETGAS, 6033, Main Board Utilities) down by 10 cents to RM18.42, YTL Power (YTLPOWR, 6742, Main Board Utilities) and Telekom Malaysia (TM, 4863, Main Board Telecom Media) each fell by 9 cents, closing at RM4.04 and RM6.76, respectively.

📊 Other major stocks: Malayan Cement (MCEMENT, 3794, Main Board Industrial) rose by 27 cents to RM5.45, Heineken Malaysia (HEIM, 3255, Main Board Consumer) increased by 26 cents to RM22.86; Malaysian Pacific Industries (MPI, 3867, Main Board Technology) fell by RM1.20 to RM34.50, while Fraser & Neave (F&N, 3689, Main Board Consumer) dropped by 32 cents to RM29.50.

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